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Methodology

Intelligence you can actually read.

AGI.ML is not a black box that spits out a pick. It is a pipeline that turns raw sports data into a transparent consensus — and shows you the reasoning, the factors, and the risks behind every call.

1. Ingest

We pull odds, line movement, team and player statistics, injuries, weather, and news from multiple data providers into a single normalized feed.

2. Model

Several independent models — statistical, market-based, trend, and matchup-specific — each produce a probability and a recommended selection.

3. Reach consensus

Model outputs are combined into a single consensus with a confidence score. We compare our probability to the market's implied odds to estimate edge.

4. Grade & learn

Every released selection is logged at its publish-time price and graded against official results and closing lines to track real performance.

Provider-agnostic by design

AGI.ML reads from a swappable adapter layer. Odds and scores flow in from The Rundown, and any approved stats, news, or external AI provider can be connected without changing the product.

Odds FeedReal-time odds and line movement across sportsbooks.
Connected
Sports StatsTeam/player performance, form, and head-to-head data.
Not connected
Injury & NewsInjury reports, lineups, and breaking news.
Not connected
External AI Model AApproved external prediction provider (consensus input).
Not connected
External AI Model BApproved external prediction provider (consensus input).
Not connected

Glossary

Edge
The gap between our estimated win probability and the probability implied by the market price. Positive edge is where value lives.
Confidence
How strongly our models agree on a selection. Higher agreement, higher confidence — but never certainty.
Implied probability
The win probability baked into a set of odds. -110 implies roughly 52.4%.
Closing line value (CLV)
Whether you beat the final market price. Consistent CLV is the best long-term signal of skill.
Unit
A standardized stake size (usually 1% of a bankroll) used to measure performance independent of dollar amounts.
Consensus
The blended view across all of our models, expressed as a single selection and confidence.

Understanding the methodology does not remove risk. Models can be wrong, data can be stale, and no consensus guarantees an outcome. AGI.ML is for informational and entertainment purposes only.